Brian Nadeau of Horseplayer Now returns with his analysis of today’s Preakness Stakes…

Pimlico: The Grade I, $1 million Preakness at 1 3/16 miles

#1 Tiger Walk (30-1): Underrated sort quietly ran big in Aqueduct’s GI Wood last time out while finishing fourth in a breakthrough run and will add blinkers today to coax a bit more speed early on. Figures to set up shop in midpack and make a run off the far turn, and with a ground-saving post, he could sit a nice trip; not the worst exotics bomb in the world.

#2 Teeth Of The Dog (15-1): Exits a fine third in the Wood and it’s worth noting that he looked absolutely tremendous in the post parade that day, so he’s clearly a big-time talent. Passed on Belmont’s GII Peter Pan last weekend to run here, but it was more the owner’s decision than trainer Matz’s, so that isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. One of very few in here with a tactical gear, which means he should be in the right spot off the turn and have every chance to make a big splash; expecting him to run in the number.

#3 Pretension (30-1): Upset winner of the local Canonero II has never been better but is taking on by far the saltiest crew he’s ever faced, so a neck win in a minor stakes isn’t scaring anyone today. Raced up close last time but figures to be more of a stalker today and it’s hard to envision him making much of a dent late; longshot.

#4 Zetterholm (20-1): NY-bred has quietly had a nice year and owns a strong closing kick on his day, though he’s never run in a graded race, let alone against the best members of his generation, so he’s got to step up today. It’s worth noting Dutrow brought state-bred Yawanna Twist here a few years back and he ran a big fourth, so there’s a bit of history in this corner, though anything but a minor award seems out of reach; midpack finish likely.

#5 Went The Day Well (6-1): Motion colt exits a nightmare trip in the Derby yet still closed stoutly late to finish fourth, so who knows where he lands with a clear run. Added blinkers in Louisville but blew the break, so expecting he’s much, much closer today, which puts him in an enviable spot off the far turn. Exited a six-week break between his GIII Spiral win and the Derby, so he’s a fresh horse today, which is more than the rest can say, and with the hope of a clean trip he should be right there; gets the call to post the upset.

#6 Creative Cause (6-1): GI winner was rumored to be off-form Derby Week, yet there he was giving them all a big scare in deep stretch en route to a fifth-place finish. Has done little wrong in four starts this year and has also beaten Bodemeister, which means he’s as good as anyone he meets today. The real question is his physical form and whether or not he can keep firing after so many tough races in the first half of the season. One of several who should stalk the early pace and make a move off the far turn, and it’s hard to fault anyone who thinks he can scare more than a few of these; seems capable.

#7 Bodemeister (8-5): Baffert charge ran one of the more remarkable Derbies in the long and storied history of the race after setting suicidal fractions, scooting clear in the stretch only to tire late. Unraced 2yo has fired every time and looks loose as loose as can be, but how many times can they go to the well and expect another huge performance? Still, there’s little doubt he’s the most talented horse of his generation and owns a tremendous race flow advantage as well, so regardless if he bounces or not, he’s the one they all have to run down; figures to be a handful.

#8 Daddy Nose Best (12-1): Wiseguy Derby horse didn’t fire a lick after really having no excuse and now wheels right back in the hopes that that effort was the exception rather than the rule. Broke through in his GIII Sunland Derby win in fast time, but you have to wonder how good that race was after runner-up Isn’t He Perfect didn’t fire in the GI Arkansas Derby behind Bodemeister and then passed on the Derby. Asmussen colt should be closing late and has his merits, but he’s seeking a big turnaround off a forgetful effort; not seeing it.

#9 I’ll Have Another (5-2): Derby winner made it 3-for-3 this year with a late running score in Louisville after stalking early and kicking clear late and looks like the one destined to keep ‘Bode honest early for O’Neill. And that presents Gutierrez with a tough dilemma: does he go after ‘Bode early and risk having no horse late, or does he sit back and risk letting his main rival walk on the lead and never look back? It’s the definition of a jockey’s race and that’s why they give them the big bucks, but either way it’s not a very enviable position to be in. But still, it’s tough to knock a Derby winner who will be tracking the pace and get first run on the closers, but the gut says it’s time for some regression; trying to beat out of the exacta.

#10 Optimizer (30-1): Lukas charge comes right back after running 11th in the Derby and needs a massive form reversal to have any chance. Looked good rallying stoutly in Oaklawn’s GII Rebel, but that seemed like 27 years ago for a horse going backwards very quickly; bombs away.

#11 Cozzetti (30-1): Romans colt has progressed in each of his last two dirt starts, running third in the GII Tampa Bay Derby and fourth behind ‘Bode in Arkansas and could be a wiseguy horse with another forward move today. Son of Cozzene got no breaks from the draw but is going to sit out the back and make a late run anyway, and if they go fast there’s a chance he rallies late into the number; exotics threat.

Selections:

#5 Went The Day Well

#7 Bodemeister

#2 Teeth Of The Dog

#9 I’ll Have Another

No, I probably wouldn’t either, if I were you, but it’s true.

Starting at the beginning of Derby week, when the New York Times reported that New York State alleged that NYRA knowingly withheld payment from bettors, the news about New York racing has been one hit after another. The Times published the second installment in its series about racing’s ills, focusing on Aqueduct; by the end of the week, both Charles Hayward and Patrick Kehoe had been dismissed.

I didn’t respond immediately for a couple of reasons. One was timing: getting ready to go to the Derby, juggling school commitments and writing commitments and hockey commitments (thank God there’s some good news there, at least), left little time for the sort of considered response that the events merited and that I wanted to offer.

I also wasn’t exactly sure what I wanted to say, or how to say it. I know no more than what I’ve read, and I am cautious about responding to anything that’s been printed: allegation and speculation and investigation, oh my. I don’t know what’s true, and I’ve no interest in commenting on a situation that seems to change by the day, and about which I have no first-hand information or insight.

In addition, as a contributor to BelmontStakes.com and the Belmont Stakes program, I have close ties to NYRA. In fact, it was NYRA and Charlie Hayward that made it possible for me to write about racing. In the summer of 2008, it was Hayward who was responsible for my being granted my first ever press credential, and nothing I’ve done since then would have been possible without the opportunities the organization gave me. I value that relationship and the work I do for NYRA.

Now, the State of New York has declared war on New York racing, withholding slots revenue and announcing an investigation into licensing and possible revocation of the franchise agreement. The State has made it clear that it wants greater involvement in the way racing is run, seeking greater representation on the NYRA board, this same state with not one but two agencies obliged to oversee NYRA’s operations, neither of which was apparently doing much overseeing while the alleged wrongdoings were being committed.

When NYRA handed over the tracks and their intellectual property as part of the most recent franchise agreement, I cringed. Having witnessed the dysfunction of this state’s government for decades, I couldn’t bear the thought of New York’s grand racing past and present in the hands of the corrupt, the inept, the self-interested, in the hands of people who have no understanding, much less an appreciation, of what racing has meant to this state since the middle of the 19th century.

And now, it seems, that is exactly what will come to pass. The lives and livelihoods of thousands of horses and humans in New York will be at the mercy of those with greedy agendas, of those who seem, if the recent past is any indication, to have little regard for the well-being of the state’s citizens if it doesn’t directly benefit them or advance their causes.

Whatever has or hasn’t happened at NYRA will and should be investigated. We can hope that some version of the truth—real truth, not just a convenient one–will make its way to the public, and that the public—and not only politicians–will be served.

Whatever has or happened at NYRA, the people who work there, and the people who work on the backstretch, and the people who work on farms and in feed stores and for van companies, deserve much, much better than to be pawns in New York State’s latest political game.

But that, I’m afraid, is exactly what they’ve got.

I have long been a supporter of the TRF and link to the organization several places on this site; in the summer of 2010, I visited the organization’s Wallkill facility and wrote about the program’s care of retired Thoroughbreds for The Blood-Horse. I’ve donated to the organization and attended its fundraisers, and I don’t intend to discontinue my support.

Last week, I received a copy of an open letter from the TRF board of directors, responding to the Times‘ article and Attorney General’s allegations. An excerpt follows.

I know no more about what’s going on at TRF than what I’ve read, and publishing the letter is not an endorsement of all or part of its contents; I publish it in order to offer the organization an opportunity to respond to the allegations leveled against it. As with any charitable organization, those interest in supporting it should do their own research and make their own decisions.

OPEN LETTER FROM THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
In March of 2011, the TRF was the subject of a front-page story in the New York Times, in a position and size normally reserved for the start of a war or a terrorist attack on American soil.

We now know that that factually incorrect and misleading story, and its equally prominent follow-ups, were the first salvo from the paper of record on the horse racing industry, and have now led to the Attorney General of the State of New York filing a lawsuit against the foundation and its board of directors.

The wording of the most recent New York Times story on the TRF, like all of those in its front-page horseracing series, is designed for the appearance of truth with the absolute intention of misleading the reader.

That intent is clear from the moment you look at the picture accompanying the latest attack on the TRF, which shows two horses in a field, and reads, “An emaciated horse under the care of the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation at Wallkill Correctional Facility, in Ulster County, N.Y., in February.” The photo credit is from the Ulster County SPCA.

Makes you think the TRF is not feeding its horses and that the Ulster County SPCA has swept in to save them. Right?

Want to know the true story?

Click here to read the full text of the TRF’s response and for links to vets’ reports on the horses in the organization’s care.

The only organization of its kind in the United States, Anna House offers low-cost child care to the children of backstretch workers. Unlike most child care centers, Anna House welcomes infants, and it opens at 5 a.m. every single day of the year.

In more good news for the children of the backstretch, Shishi, a women’s clothing shop on the Upper West Side, is hosting an event of spring cocktails and shopping to benefit Anna House.

Next Wednesday, May 16, from 7-9 p.m., Shishi will donate a percentage of all sales to Anna House.  Last year, Time Out New York called Shishi “the best new indie shop” in New York; “cheap and chic,” the store offers funky, eclectic clothing and jewelry at reasonable (for New York City) prices.

Shishi is at 2488 Broadway between 92nd and 93rd Streets. I’ll be there along with other members of the BCCA board, and we hope that you can stop by to browse and shop, and to learn more about, and contribute to, the incredible work of Anna House.

 (click to enlarge)

But right up there with all of that is gratitude to all of you, you who have so generously donated $1,000 to the Brooklyn Backstretch Road to the Roses charity league. $1,000! $1,000 that a person that most of you don’t even know can donate to the racing charities of his choice.

Congratulations to Matt Shifman for winning this year’s league. The contest went right down to the wire, with Matt surging to victory to the finish, not unlike I’ll Have Another, whose late run in the Kentucky Derby led to Matt’s title.

Matt has chosen three recipients for his donation: the Belmont Child Care Center, Our Mims, and Old Friends at Cabin Creek. He wrote to me,

I know the BCCA is important to you and I feel strongly that they should benefit from your hard work. [which I find so kind and generous – thank you, Matt]

I was going to give to Old Mims after they took in Elmhurst recently, but didn’t get around to it, so now I can.

Because we all love Saratoga so much, I’d like to include Old Friends, also.

If you made a pledge, I’ll be in touch this week to let you know how to make the donations. If you’re still interested in pledging, please e-mail me or leave a message in the comments.

Thanks again to everyone who played and everyone who donated; your prodigious generosity is why this contest works every year. In the four years we’ve played, we’ve donated over $2,000 to a variety of racing charities that help both horses and humans. Thank you all, very, very much.

The 2012 Brooklyn Backstretch Derby picks, by the letters.

Alpha: This is a no-brainer, right? His name means “something that is first.” End of story.

Bodemeister: I can’t wager on a horse that sounds like something Jeff Spicoli would say.

Daddy Long Legs: He’s named for a bug. An elegant, graceful bug, but a bug nonetheless.

El Padrino: Sorry — had it with the Godfather jokes. Passing.

Hansen: The man named the horse after himself, and we really just can’t encourage that sort of thing.

Rousing Sermon: By Lucky Pulpit out of Rousing Again, scores big on pedigree points.

Sabercat: Need I say more?

Union Rags: Another high on the pedigree points scale: by Dixie Union out of Tempo. Rather brilliant, actually.

Went the Day Well: His former owner explains his name here; the redolence of history and the connection to his dam charm me. Anything that thoughtful gets  my money.

So based on this highly scientific examination, at least some of my money will go on Alpha, Sabercat, Rousing Sermon, Union Rags, and Went the Day Well. Feel free to leave your own naming rationalizations and/or wagering suggestions for these five.

Good luck to you, safe trips to all!

Churchill Downs: The Grade I, $2 million Kentucky Derby at 1 ¼ miles

#1 Daddy Long Legs (30-1): The lone European invader looked good winning the GII UAE Derby over the Tapeta at Meydan in Dubai and will try and better his forgettable 12th-place finish in his lone dirt start in last fall’s GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile here. Broke through in a big way in Dubai and that win was at 1 3/16 miles, which is further than anyone else  in here has  traveled, so as a son of Scat Daddy, he’s already outrun his middle distance pedigree. In expert hands with O’Brien calling the shots and it’s not like they came over just to pad their frequent flier miles, but with this terrible draw and suspect dirt form, it’s asking a lot; passing.

#2 Optimizer (50-1): Lukas charge was the last horse to make the field and it took a defection to get him in, so it’s not like he enters breathing fire. Son of turf champion English Channel looked good rallying late to finish second in Oaklawn Park’s GII Rebel in March, but then stubbed his toe badly when he was beaten over 20 lengths by Bodemeister there in the GI Arkansas Derby. It seemed he raced too close to the pace last time, so expecting that he drops back and tries to make one big late run, and while that might allow him to pass a few, it’s tough to think he can do much more than that; deserving longshot.

#3 Take Charge Indy (15-1): Beautifully bred colt rode the rails and the inside speed bias to an upset win over fellow Derby rival Union Rags in the GI Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park to stamp himself as a major contender today. And sure, he did upset down south, but he’s been facing some toughies all along and never disgraced himself, so there’s a good chance that he’s simply peaking at the right time for Byrne. The issue today is the draw and the fact that there’s tons of other speed to his outside, so it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to clear and set a loose lead, which means that when the real running begins, he could be spent and looking to drop anchor, all at a price that is probably half this ML with local legend Borel riding; playing against.

#4 Union Rags (9-2): The winter book favorite enters off a tough-to- read third at odds-on to ‘Indy at GP and will try to make amends for Matz, who won this race with Barbaro in 2006. The GP run is all in the eyes of the beholder, as his fans will argue that he got a bad ride from Leparoux while getting hemmed in on the inside and not getting out until it was far too late; the contrarians will say that he got a dream trip while saving all the ground and simply wasn’t good enough when it mattered most. The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but what is fact is that he certainly didn’t look comfortable being down inside and that’s likely the trip he pulls again in the Derby.  Plus, you can make a case that he’s the exact same horse he was at two and simply hasn’t progressed like many thought he would (or believe he has). And it’s also worth noting that the two times he’s had things go against him in a race, like at GP and in last year’s Juvenile when he was wide and bumped repeatedly, he’s lost. So, do you really want to take a short price on a horse who didn’t get the best of it in terms of the draw, has no speed figure advantage over his rivals and as a son of Dixie Union may not love that 10th furlong? Tossing completely.

#5 Dullahan (8-1): Synthetic lover made it 2-for-2 in GI’s at Keeneland when he closed stoutly to run down 2yo champion Hansen in the Blue Grass (he also won the Breeders’ Futurity last fall) and will go for his first win on conventional dirt for Romans. His late running style should play well in a field loaded with speed, but there’s no denying that up to this point he’s simply much, much faster on the fake stuff than he is on the real stuff. Figures to be among the last few horses early and then look to rally late, and while there’s no doubt that he’ll pass some, he’s going to need a major boost from his other dirt starts to run by more than the drunken soldiers in the lane; for the bottom of the exotics, if at all.

#6 Bodemeister (4-1): Baffert’s ML favorite is clearly the fastest and most talented horse in the race and wins this for fun if he runs back to his 9 ½-length romp in the Arkansas Derby, but he also brings a ton of questions to the party as well. First off, he’ll try to buck eons of history by becoming the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without running as a 2yo. Second, he’s going to have to do something he’s never done before: sit behind horses and win a race. His two wins have come in easy wire-to-wire fashion and with the speedball Trinniberg entered, it’s clear that he’s not getting to the front, not to mention that it’s tough to think that he does anything but bounce off that giant run at OP. Still, even if he regresses, he can win this, and there’s no doubt that his talent is immeasurable and he’s not really meeting the saltiest Derby field we’ve ever seen. But at the end of the day, do you really want to take 4-1 on a horse that seemingly has a ton of things going against him in a 20-horse field where strange things happen more often than not? Quite content playing against on top.

#7 Rousing Sermon (50-1): Deep closer has been nothing but a fringe player in a trio of preps this year but does enter off his best effort yet, a fast-closing third in the GII Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds for the recently crowned Hall of Famer Hollendorfer. The problem is that the race was won by a 109-1 horse named Hero Of Order and the second place finisher, Mark Valeski, came out of the race in such rough shape that he was declared from the Derby earlier in the week after a subpar workout. So, needless to say, the La. route to CD isn’t exactly scaring the competition. But hey, it’s already been mentioned that the pace figures to be hot, and you know this dude will be closing, so maybe at a giant number he can sidle his way into the bottom part of the exotics; thinking he outruns his odds.

#8 Creative Cause (12-1): The West Coast’s pro-tem leader looked great winning the GII San Felipe over Bodemeister at Santa Anita in March but then regressed when he was beaten a nose there in the GI Santa Anita Derby in his last start. Harrington took the blinkers off for his last and they stay off today, so it’s fair to wonder if he’s as good with the hood removed as he was with it on. Somewhat troubled trip last time, in that he had to rally between horses and didn’t seem to like the close quarters he had to endure throughout the stretch. But it’s also worth noting that both he and race winner I’ll Have Another were all out to get by reformed claimer and huge longshot Blueskiesnrainbows, so you’re allowed to wonder about the quality of that race. Still, he should be further off the pace today and has shown he can pass horses late, and he’s one of the very few in the race to actually run fast, which are all great attributes to bring to the party; huge threat.

#9 Trinniberg (50-1): Freaky fast runner was a surprise entrant for Parboo after wiring a pair of one-turn GIII’s this spring, and there’s little doubt that he’s going to the front and taking them as far as he can on the engine. And that alone is a big deal, as it means ‘Indy and ‘Bode will likely be taken out of their best game, which is setting a sharp but uncontested pace. Yet to run past seven furlongs, so obviously this is a Herculean task, though there’s no doubt they’ll know he’s in there because they’ll see his tail for the first half-mile or so, but after that, let’s just hope he gets home safely; easy toss.

#10 Daddy Nose Best (15-1): Underrated sort has done little wrong this year for Asmussen, winning both GIII starts, including a fast-closing and speedy score in the GIII Sunland Derby in his last. Son of Scat Daddy has clearly elevated his game this year, and if you simply look at his Sunland win–his only two-turn start on conventional dirt—he hits really hard in a race that has a bunch of contenders that have yet to run very fast. Owns the right running style, is in expert hands, and figures to offer a ton of value in a wide open race; won’t fault anyone giving him an upset chance.

#11 Alpha (15-1): Exits a troubled second place finish in Aqueduct’s GI Wood Memorial, where he was shuffled back on the first turn and forced to rally wide on what was an inside speed favoring track all day. Beautifully bred son of Bernardini has done little wrong in three starts this year for McLaughlin, should sit a dream trip in midpack, and gives the impression that he’s one of the few horses in the race ready to peak, as the Wood was his first start in over two months. If there’s a worry, it’s his tendency to be a bad gate actor, and drawing the 11-hole means that he’ll be the second group to load (the 1 and 10 will load first, then  2 and 11, etc.), which will have him sitting in the gate for a quite a while. But hey, if he’s gotten this far, you just have to go with it and hope for the best, and that best means that he’s poised to give Godolphin their long-sought-after win in America’s most prestigious horserace; call to win an absolute scramble of a Derby.

#12 Prospective (30-1): Casse trainee added blinkers to win the GII Tampa Bay Derby two back but then spun his wheels behind Dullahan while running sixth in the Blue Grass, so he should enjoy the return to the dirt today. The Tampa route didn’t really produce any other Triple Crown threats this year, unlike it has in the past, so you have to take a skeptical view of this colt, as he’s blinked anytime he’s been in with a top horse. Owns the right stalking style to make a run, but up to this point he’s simply not shown enough to suggest he can threaten any of the main contenders; longshot.

#13 Went the Day Well (20-1): GIII Spiral winner will try to emulate last year’s Derby winner Animal Kingdom, as he exits the identical prep for the identical connections in Team Valor, Motion and Velazquez. And what’s even more impressive is that this son of Proud Citizen (2nd in the 2002 Derby) owns a two-turn dirt win, which is more than Animal Kingdom could say when he entered the starting gate last year. Tactical runner adds blinkers off a win, which kind of rubs you the wrong way, though it’s also tough to question anything Motion has done the past few years. Enters on the upswing, is in expert hands, should sit the right trip and get first run on the closers; contention clearly runs deep.

#14 Hansen (10-1): Reigning 2yo champion and BC Juvenile winner over the track has had an odd year as he disappointed at odds-on in GP’s GIII Holy Bull in January, got back on the beam in Aqueduct’s GIII Gotham in March, and then was run down late by Dullahan in the Blue Grass. Still, even in defeat he ran huge at KEE, when he set a wicked pace and only relented in deep stretch in an effort that says he’s ready for the toughest test of his career. Showed a new dimension in the Gotham, as he was able to stalk early and kick clear late, and that will be important today, as he won’t be on the lead early. Drew best off all the other speed, as Dominguez can let things develop early and act accordingly, but even with that stalking gear in tow, it’s tough to envision him being close to the hot pace early and having enough late to hold off the charge; taking a stand against.

#15 Gemologist (6-1): Pletcher colt enters undefeated in five career starts after bravely holding off Alpha in the Wood after it looked certain he was going to be passed late. Has come to hand nicely this season after waiting until mid-March to make his 3yo debut and he gets some bonus points for his 2-for-2 record at CD, which includes a two-turn win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club. Son of Tiznow got all the best of it in the Wood, as he was close to a false runaway leader before getting first run on Alpha, and if he’s keyed up again on Saturday, it will prove costly in the lane. Hard to knock a GI winner who is undefeated, but the gut says that he’s going to regress instead of move forward, and it’s not like he has any margin for error to begin with; capable, but trying to beat.

#16 El Padrino (20-1): Loved his chances going into the Florida Derby but he was awful and a beaten horse after five furlongs. Still, he took all the worst of it that day while racing wide, and even as bad as he was, there was some resurgence late as he re-broke and chased the top trio home. Pletcher’s “other” horse looked good winning the GII Risen Star at FG in February and has that Thunder Gulch look to him, as that colt was a hotshot early in his 3yo season, ran a bad fourth in the Blue Grass, and then bounced back for Lukas to shock them at 24-1 in the 1995 Derby. It’s worth noting that he has run fast before and should get a nice trip just off the pace, so if you were a believer before the poor Florida run, you’ll get much, much better odds than you ever thought you would; Pletcher fans get their guy at a price.

#17 Done Talking (50-1): Rapidly developing colt brings legendary Maryland horseman Ham Smith to the Derby after rallying late to annex the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in his last. Sure, they timed that GIII with a sundial, but it’s never a bad thing to have an improving 3yo who should relish the Derby distance in your corner. Figures to lag well off the pace early on and then make a late charge, and with the expected hot splits likely to take their toll on the frontrunners, this colt looms an intriguing exotics threat at boxcar odds; thinking he runs somewhere in the number.

#18 Sabercat (30-1): Asmussen’s second runner has slowly come to hand this year and may be sitting on a top run after rallying mildly to finish third behind Bodemeister in Arkansas. Rolled home in the GIII Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs to end his 2yo campaign and that gave him the earnings to get into the Derby, which has allowed Asmussen to take the patient approach this year. So all that means that he could be sitting on a peak run while owning a running style that will give him every opportunity to put his best foot forward; yet another who could emerge.

#19 I’ll Have Another (12-1): Underrated O’Neill colt has done little wrong this year at Santa Anita, shocking them at 43-1 in the GII Bob Lewis in February and then doggedly beating ‘Cause in the Derby there last month. Tactical runner likes to be involved early, so this draw really does him no favors, as he’s likely to be wide entering the first turn and chasing some hot splits. Tough to knock a horse who is 2-for-2 this year and has a bit of a nasty streak in him as he clearly wants to beat you, but with this draw, coupled with his running style, it’s tough to envision him putting away all the speed and holding off the closers late; playing against.

#20 Liaison (50-1): The second from Baffert has been much better on synthetics up to this point and will need a big form reversal from his dirt runs if he’s to threaten. Has finished well-beaten by ‘Bode, ‘Cause and ‘Another out West and meets several sharp new shooters as well, so even Baffert fans will have trouble looking this way; outsider.
#21 My Adonis (50-1): Second tier outsider has already made history for Breen, as he’s the first horse ever on the also-eligible list for the Kentucky Derby, though even if he does draw in, he’s up against it. Chased Hansen home in both the Holy Bull and Gotham, while finishing well-beaten in both, and there are others who rank higher than the champ today, so even if he draws in, he’s tough to tout; needs softer to threaten.

Selections:
#11 Alpha
#8 Creative Cause
#17 Done Talking
#6 Bodemeister

The last winner of the British Triple Crown was Nijinsky in 1970, and while the Triple Crown drought is longer in England than it is in the United States, the hope for another winner is also more muted there, at least according to Nicholas Clee.

Clee is the author of Eclipse: The Horse That Changed Racing History Forever, and he’s followed racing for much of his life, going to the races for the first time as a child. According to him, when it comes to the Triple Crown, we here in the States are much better off than our neighbors across the Atlantic.

“We are rather envious of your Triple Crown because ours no longer has much meaning,” he said from his home in England. “Achieving a U.S. Triple Crown is much more feasible than an English one.”

Part of it is due to the calendar, he said, noting that the St. Leger, the longest of the three races, comes months after the other two, diminishing the narrative arc of the races.

“It’s a shame that we’ve lost that,” he said. “There have been various attempts to build a narrative into the season, but the Triple Crown isn’t going to be it.”

In addition, he said, “Increasingly horses are specialists. In fact, since Sea The Stars won the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby, it had been quite a long time since a horse had won both of those races.”  The last had been Nashwan in 1989; prior to that, no horse since Nijinsky had won both.

And even if a horse wins the first two legs, he pointed out, it’s unlikely that a horse would go on to run in the St. Leger.  “The St. Leger has lost a lot of luster,” he said, “partly because breeders are looking for speed much more these days.

“The Triple Crown hasn’t worked for anyone for a long time, and I can’t see a Triple Crown winner happening again.”

Even the Epsom Derby, he said, doesn’t get the attention is used to.

“It doesn’t stop the nation as it used to,” he said. “It’s revived a bit, but it certainly doesn’t have the luster of the Kentucky Derby.”

Clee is not alone in his opinion; in 2006, Charlie Brooks wrote in The Telegraph,

A good number of you may not even know the Derby is the second leg and even fewer will be aware or care that the St Leger is the third leg. Because the concept of a Triple Crown winner is obsolete in this country.

Brooks advocated that the distance of the St. Leger be cut back to a mile and quarter, noting that traditionalists would “howl” at the idea.

In 2009, an article in The Mirror compared the English Triple Crown to the dead parrot in a Monty Python sketch.

The Triple Crown is like the ‘Norwegian Blue’ Parrot in the Monty Python sketch, where John Cleese enters the pet shop to register a complaint about the dead bird, but pet-shop owner Graham Chapman insists that it is alive.

(“The Triple Crown? It’s not dead, it’s resting.”) The last time a horse had the chance of winning the Triple Crown was 20 years ago, when Nashwan won the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby, but Major Dick Hern decided against it.

(“You stunned it, just as it was waking up! Triple Crowns stun easily, major!”) Of course, we would have been amazed if John Oxx had given Sea The Stars the go-ahead to run at Doncaster, rather than plan for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and possibly the Breeders’ Cup.

On these shores, we regularly hear criticism of our Triple Crown: Space out the races more. Shorten the Belmont. Restrict the series to 4-year-olds. Nonetheless, each spring, racing fans in particular and sporting fans in general turn their eyes to Louisville and then to Baltimore, hoping that this year will be the one that we get to see the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years.

“If you want racing to regain its status,” said Clee, “you should probably be grateful that there is Derby fever.

“We don’t quite have that, and it would be good if we did.”

Last week at Forbes.com, I wrote about why I’m not a huge fan of our Derby, and my feelings haven’t changed. But Clee certainly has a point: whatever is wrong with our Derby and Triple Crown, it’s not, at least, a dead parrot.

Note: I’m working on a post-Derby post on Clee’s terrific book, which will appear at Forbes.com in the next couple of weeks.

In 1994, the Times still covered local stakes races.  Joseph Durso wrote about  the Excelsior on April 23, when Colonial Affair returned to the winner’s circle for the first time since the previous June, when he’d won the Belmont Stakes. Jose Santos rode him in the Excelsior, but his jockey for that Belmont, Julie Krone, was also in the news in late April, 1994.

Out of racing since a terrible spill at Saratoga the previous summer, Krone was returning to the track; the Times reported that on an April morning, she came to Belmont to exercise two “easy horses,” Uncharted Waters and Vel Vel, for Scotty Schulhofer. “I feel,” she was quoted as saying, “a little bit cocky already.”

On the Derby trail, Durso was writing about Garrett Gomez, who over the weekend had ridden Southern Rhythm (trained by James Keefer) to victory in the Lexington a day after he had won the Arkansas Derby with Richard Small’s Concern.  Also in Lexington, Holy Bull worked five furlongs at Keeneland in 1:02 ½.

Back home at Aqueduct, Minetonightsfirst (a “strange name,” said Durso) won the filly division of the New York Stallion Series with Gash taking the colt’s division. The filly was ridden by Robbie Davis and trained by Dennis Manning; Davis also rode Gash, who was trained by Mary Eppler and owned by Alfred G. Vanderbilt

And on April 25, the Rangers completed a first-round sweep of the hated Islanders in a series that left Rangers’ fans exulting and taunting. Beating the Islanders 6-0 in each of the first two games of the series, the Rangers crushed their eastern neighbors, moving on to face the Washington Capitals.

The win, said Robin Finn, was “embarrassing for [the Islanders] and ennobling for their metropolitan rivals.”

Should the Rangers emerge victorious tonight, no one will call the win “ennobling” for the home team. These Rangers do bear some similarity to that 1994 team, both having dominated through the regular season, both having a seemingly invincible goalie. But this team is more vulnerable and less experienced than that team, and in this series, that’s been evident. This series shouldn’t have gone seven, but it has, and here we are.

1994 was the last time that the Rangers played a game 7, and they played two. The first one came at the end of May, against their rival to the west, the New Jersey Devils; they played their second game 7 of the tournament on June 14, 1994. Both came on the Garden ice.

The horse that finished second in the Wood Memorial that year, Go for Gin, vindicated himself with a win on May 7, 1994, and later that summer, hockey and horse racing came together on the Belmont backstretch.

Courtesy Adam Coglianese/NYRA

The first round in 1994 was easy; this year, not so much. Tonight, the Rangers play game 7 for the first time in 18 years, and I break my game 7 maiden at the Garden. Once more, all together…

Durso, Joseph. Horse Racing; Colonial Affair Surges to Take Excelsior.  New York Times, April 24, 1994.

Durso, Joseph. Horse Racing; The Road to Louisville Is Taking Cruel Twists.  New York Times, April 24, 1994.

Finn, Robin.  Hockey; Rangers Sweep as Islanders Can’t Even Find Any Moral Victories. New York Times, April 25, 1994.

Sports People: Racing; Krone to Return in 30 Days.  New York Times, April 22, 1994.

“The Kenucky Derby winner, the hockey player, and the Stanley Cup.” Brooklyn Backstretch, June 14, 2010.

Yesterday was closing day at Aqueduct, a sodden, sloppy, chilly day far more redolent of winter than of spring.

And the day before that, the New York Rangers played dreadfully in their own building, losing a game they needed to win, and will play tonight in Ottawa to save their season, down 3-2 in their first round playoff series.

Winter of discontent, indeed.

When Shakespeare’s Richard III declared, “Now is the winter of our discontent,” he used the season as a metaphor for the end of unhappy times; it is in fact a statement of optimism, made clear in the next line, “Made glorious summer by this sun of York.”

It comes to my mind literally today, the winter of 2011-2012 offering more than a few reasons to be discontent.

At Aqueduct and Madison Square Garden, it was a winter of transitions. Out in Ozone Park, a new neighbor moved in; the Genting casino was a smashing success from the beginning, and it was nice to have good food and a decent bar nearby. The clubhouse at Aqueduct remained comfortingly—OK, maybe not so much—familiar; while casino money flooded into NYRA’s coffers, plans for capital improvements on the racing side will wait, we are told until fall, when we can expect, on our return to the Big A in November, to find a gorgeous simulcast center and sports bar and free Wi-Fi.

That beautiful new subway stop at Aqueduct never did materialize, so instead of a rundown, chilly subway stop just outside Aqueduct gates, we got  to depart from a rundown, chilly subway stop a couple of furlongs away. Steady progress was made on the new passageway from the casino to the platform, but it remained stubbornly closed, its opening pushed back from December 2011, to March 2012 to….?

And before winter came to an end, that long-anticipated casino revenue, pumped straight into purses, became a mixed blessing, seen as contributing to the unusually high number of breakdowns. The flashy next door neighbor, initially thought to jazz up the neighborhood, began to be seen as the people that you just might not want your kids to play with.

About 13 miles away, on 7th Avenue between 31st and 34th, Madison Square Garden unveiled the first stage of its “Transformation”: new concessions, new design, new seating. The renovations will creep slowly upward, affecting my seats next year; here, too, the opening was greeted with optimistic interest…but while the subways still work and the Rangers had their best season in years, the geniuses that make up the Garden brain trust saw fit to remove all the women’s rooms on the 400 level of the arena, leaving me to walk nearly as far to the bathroom during games as I had to to get to the subway from Aqueduct. And while some of those new concessions are tempting, I’m not sure that I need a $20 lobster roll during a hockey game. Color me underwhelmed–like the new beige color scheme coating the mezzanine–about the latest new Garden.

Both hockey and horse racing faced crises of safety. At Aqueduct, 19 horses died during racing during the inner track meet; in hockey, concern about concussions became part of the daily conversation everywhere, except, maybe, in the office of the commissioner.  Early on,  NHL suspensions came fast and furiously; later, not so much, and throughout the season, writers and fans complained long and loud about a lack of consistency in the consequences for illegal hits, including vociferous disagreements about what, exactly, makes a hit illegal or not.

Those calling for a racing commissioner, take note: even in a league with a commissioner, in a league in which every team has no choice but to submit to his will, in a league with a common rulebook, there’s no guarantee of consistent and fair consequences. A commissioner is not a panacea.

As some in racing say that breakdowns are an inevitable part of the sport, hockey has its voices who say that fighting is a part of the game. Both may well be true, but this is certain: it’s no fun at all to go to a sporting event when you’re worried as much about an athlete getting hurt as you are interested in who’s going to win.

Photo credit NYRA/Adam Coglianese

On Saturday, I went straight from Aqueduct to the Garden, the trusty A train speeding me there in about 40 minutes. The Lumber Guy won the Grade 2 Jerome, The Lumber Guy who has provided me with no small amount of punning amusement since he was pointed to the Wood, The Lumber Guy who’s quickly become one of my favorite horses. Alas, the Rangers didn’t come through, getting shut out on home ice, leaving me to wonder whether Saturday night was the last night that I’ll sit in my seats in section 418, where I’ve sat for a decade, before I am moved across the arena as part of the “Transformation.”

I won’t know until tonight whether my hockey season is over; no question, though, that racing’s winter season has come to an end. Aqueduct closed yesterday and live racing moves to Belmont this Friday. Spring is here, leaving, we hope, a winter of discontent literally behind us literally, and metaphorically before us.