Brian’s Derby Preps: The Florida Derby

Gulfstream Park: The GI, $1 million Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles

Don’t forget to check out Brian’s analysis at his regular gig at Horseplayer Now.

#1 Fort Loudon: Ran a decent fourth in the local GIII Holy Bull in his 3yo bow but came back to earth over the track in the GII Fountain of Youth, when he was beaten a good chunk by today’s favorite Union Rags. Looked good sweeping the Florida Stallion series at Calder but has not answered the bell against open company and this is his toughest test to date; needs softer to threaten.

#2 News Pending: Finished a fine second to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth at big odds after doing his best work on turf, so maybe he’s turned the corner and is ready to burst onto the scene for Romans, who did great work with Shackleford in last year’s Triple Crown. The issue is what to make of his last, as it was a career best run, and regression could be in the cards today, though on the other hand, we know these 3yo’s can jump up and improve open lengths overnight. The price will be right if you believe and he figures to be close to a modest pace, but the gut says he blinks when the real running begins; playing underneath, if at all. Continue reading

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Three Questions for the Authors of the Times Article

When I planned my spring break trip this year, I decided to split the vacation into two distinct parts. Week one would be spent in southwest Florida, visiting relatives, reading, and hanging out on the beach. Week two would be spent on the east coast of Florida, researching stories, interviewing, and enjoying Florida Derby week. As much as I love racing, it was time, I thought, for a little hiatus.

Ha. So much for that.

Between Aqueduct breakdowns, the cancellation of Luck, the naming of a New York State task force, and wait, there’s something else, isn’t there?–oh, yes, that story in the New York Times–I didn’t exactly pick the best time to step away for a few days.

Reaction to the first installment in the Times series has been vehement and varied, which will not, of course, stop me from dipping my toes in…though dipping them into the Gulf Coast surf, I will say, was a lot more pleasant than this.

Both the reactions and the article itself were thought-provoking; both were also, at times, disturbing. On one side, supporters of racing reacted furiously to what they saw as inaccuracies and misrepresentations, to the conflation of Quarter Horse racing and Thoroughbred racing, to the extrapolations logically made by readers that what’s happening at the New Mexico tracks represents what happens at tracks around the country.

On the other side were voices imploring racing fans to stop “killing the messenger,” to stop quibbling over details, to accept the article as an opportunity to make necessary changes to the sport and its policies.

It’s hard to read ugly stories about a sport you love. It’s also hard—and inadvisable–to accept uncritically those stories when they raise questions, which this one did, three in particular that that I hope will be answered in upcoming installments.

1)  As I can’t recall seeing an article about Quarter Horse racing in recent memory in the Times, why weren’t the distinctions and similarities between the two sports made more explicit? It’s clear from the comments that to the general public, “horse racing is horse racing.” In what cases is that true, and in what cases is it misleading? Are the breakdown and medication violations comparable?

On Twitter yesterday, Joe Drape, one of the authors of the article, addressed Andy Beyer, who had written his own response to the piece in the Washington Post and Daily Racing Form:

To Beyer: Quarter horses are regulated under same rules & state commissions. We believe the lives of those who ride’em are no less valuable.

I asked Drape why that point wasn’t made in the article, as it seemed particularly salient to understanding the connection between the two sports. He responded, “Most know that. A state racing commission is a state racing commission.”

I would respectfully suggest that most of the responses I’ve seen – even from racing fans – indicate that most don’t know that. I’m not even sure that I knew it, as I live in a state that doesn’t race Quarter Horses. The State Racing and Wagering Board here oversees both harness and Thoroughbreds, but I wouldn’t presume that other states operate similarly, or that Quarter Horses fall under the same jurisdiction as Thoroughbreds. Perhaps in this case, the Times overestimated the understanding of its audience, and I would hope that in the upcoming installments, such connections are made explicit and not assumed.

2)  This sentence gave me pause: “Since 2009, records show, trainers at United States tracks have been caught illegally drugging horses 3,800 times…”

Do those numbers include overages—minute and large—of legal medications? Or are they only positives for illegal medications? The sentence implies an intent to cheat and drug horses; if included in those 3,800 violations are also overages of legal medication, I would hope that that would be made clear to readers. To exclude that information, to fail to inform readers of the wide variety of medication violations, does, I think, misrepresent the violations, particularly given the strength of the language in the sentence. It wouldn’t mitigate or dismiss any time of violation, but it would at least educate the audience to the variety of infractions that have occurred. It wouldn’t excuse the number of violations, but it would provide a fuller—and yes, less sensationalist—picture of them.

3)  The article notes prominently the use of bute, saying,

Virginia’s fatality rate went up after regulators in 2005 raised the allowable level of bute to 5 micrograms from 2 micrograms. “Our catastrophic incidents increased significantly,” said Dr. Richard Harden, equine medical director for the state racing commission.

Virginia returned to the lower level in 2009, though the fatality rate has not come down.

Iowa’s fatality rate rose by more than 50 percent after the state in 2007 allowed a higher level of bute.

I wonder why the article doesn’t mention that in September 2010, the Association of Racetrack Commissioners International voted unanimously to recommend that the allowable threshold of bute be lowered to two micrograms from five; the release announcing the recommendation noted that at that time, both Maryland and Pennsylvania had the two microgram threshold in place. Since then, California has also adopted the recommendation.

It’s true that the recommendation has met with resistance from a number of racing’s organizations, a point worth discussing.  I am surprised that it was excluded, and I wonder why.

Asking questions about the article doesn’t make me an apologist or blind me to the realities it depicts. The situations depicted by the authors are appalling and deserve our attention and our action, all the more reason that I hope that upcoming installments give readers what they need to understand racing’s problems in all of their complexity, that the articles don’t sacrifice that complexity in order to generate emotional impact, and that they don’t give readers the chance to be distracted from the hard truths that the series will no doubt expose.

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Brian’s Derby Preps: The Sunland Derby

Sunland Park: The Grade III, $800,000 Sunland Derby at 1 1/8 miles

#1 Castaway: The first of two from Baffert won the slower division of Oaklawn Park’s GIII Southwest in his last and figures to be a major pace player from this cozy rail draw. Son of Derby winner Street Sense really came to hand this winter when stretched to two turns, and it’s obvious he’s got talent as he went from a Santa Anita maiden right into the winner’s circle in the Southwest. Figures to be sent to the lead and will try to wire this crew, but there are others entered with speed, so not quite sure he’ll be a fresh horse in the final furlong; playing against on top today.

#2 Ender Knievel: Pletcher charge enters off a Gulfstream Park maiden win and will try two turns and winners, not to mention stakes foes, for the first time, so he’s definitely got his work cut out for him. Tons of speed in this corner, so expecting him to be right on or just off the lead, which means we could have a pace battle brewing with Castaway drawn to his inside, and that could spell doom for the both of them; thinking this is too tall a task at this point.

#3 Stirred Up: Baffert’s second runner has progressed nicely since switching to two turns, and he enters off a resolute SA maiden win over a top prospect in Tiz Yankee, so there’s some upside potential here. His off-the-pace running style should work well in this speedy field, and you get the impression the more ground he gets the better, which is something that can’t be said for all of his rivals. Lightly raced and in expert hands and may just be set to deliver a top performance and launch himself squarely into the Derby picture; gets the call to mow them down in the lane.

#4 Isn’t He Clever: The top local hope looked good winning Sunland’s prep in the Borderland Derby from close range and should sit a nice trip today, though the waters obviously get much, much deeper. Son of Derby winner Smarty Jones is perfect in two starts over the track, which gives him a big edge on his rivals, and trainer Dominguez is one of the top local outfits, so he’s got a lot going for him, not to mention a square mutuel price is in the offing. His tactical speed should have him sitting just off the lead and get him first run on the closers, so if you believe in homefield advantage, this is your guy; not an impossible task.
#5 No Spin: Son of Johannesburg enters off a well beaten eighth in the Southwest behind Castaway, and up to this point he’s blinked when facing stakes foes, so he seems out of his element against a group like this. Trainer Ice knows what to do with a nice 3yo, but this simply looks like a tough spot for a runner that has never won a race on conventional dirt; longshot.

#6 Daddy Nose Best: Asmussen colt enters off a win in the GIII El Camino Real over the Tapeta at Golden Gate and a few of those runners behind him were up the track in Saturday’s GII Spiral at Turfway Park, so the quality of that race comes into question. Has been on a turf/synthetic diet since failing to win his first two career starts on conventional dirt, so this is a mighty tough spot to jump back into the fray. At least you know he’s in good form and is going the right way, but we’ve yet to see enough on the real stuff to think he can win a race like this; others rank higher.

#7 Tequila Factor: Recent Turf Paradise turf stakes winner was soundly beaten by Isn’t He Clever in his two local starts and has done his best running on the grass up to this point, so he looks up against it in here. Owns a nice stalking style and should sit a good trip, but it’s doubtful he’ll be a major factor when the real running begins; not seeing it.

#8 Justanoldsong: Well-bred son of Unbridled’s Song broke his maiden at first asking over the local strip and then was sixth, some 14 ½ lengths behind Isn’t He Clever in the Borderland, so that’s not going to scare anyone today. Got the worst of the draw as well so he will likely get a wide trip, which is another strike against a colt who seems up against it; needs softer to threaten.

Selections:

#3 Stirred Up
#1 Castaway
#4 Isn’t He Clever

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Brian’s Derby Preps: The Vinery Spiral

Turfway Park: The Grade III, $500,000 Spiral at 1 1/18 miles

#1 Russian Greek: Hollendorfer charge disappointed in a highly rated renewal of the GIII El Camino Real at Golden Gate in his last start and now adds blinkers as he ships out of town looking for some graded money. The hood should put some more tactical speed in him, and from this rail-saving draw, that should help, as will his affinity for synthetic surfaces (although GG is Tapeta and TP is Polytrack), so expecting him to be setting up shop from midpack today. This is a comparable field to the one he met at GG, but there are a few up-and-comers that rate a bit higher than he does, so he’ll have to move forward to factor; using on the bottom rung of the exotics, if at all.

#2 Red Jack: Lukas runner seems out of his element, as he’s won just a MSW last fall at CD, though it was on the turf, so he’s eligible to move up a bit on this surface. Of course, his lone run on Poly was a dismal performance at Keeneland last fall, so that’s not going to scare anyone today. We saw the Coach shock them all (including this handicapper) with a big second from Optimizer at boxcar odds in last weekend’s GII Rebel at Oaklawn Park, but on paper that colt looked like Secretariat compared to this dude; longshot. Continue reading

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A Hope for Racing to Move “Ever Upward”

An atmosphere of edgy grimness pervaded Aqueduct last Saturday.  The weight of the week’s bad news lay heavy; nearly every conversation included references to the cancellation of Luck in the aftermath of a third horse death or to the growing list of equine mortality at the track over the last few months. Races were watched less to see which horse crossed the wire first than to see whether they all finished.

And they didn’t. In the seventh race, Deferred Risk became the 18th fatality of the inner track meet when she broke down in the stretch in her first career start; she was euthanized on the track. A race earlier, Red Bendel and Purplegreenandgold were vanned off, Red Bendel after winning the race; they were later reported to be uninjured.

Those involved in the investigation called for by Governor Cuomo last week have their work cut out for them. If determining the cause of equine injury were easy, someone would have figured it out long ago. Still, questions need to be asked, and we can hope that those questions can yield answers that will lead to positive change about this most troubling element of racing. Continue reading

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Brian’s Derby Preps: The Rebel

Oaklawn Park: The Grade II, $500,000 Southwest at 1 1/16 miles

#2 Unbridled’s Note: Looked good winning his debut at Churchill Downs last October and entered the first division of the local GIII Southwest as a hot horse in his seasonal debut, but had a rough trip and finished a well-beaten 9th. Asmussen forges on, though–a sign of confidence–and things have got to get better today after such a rough trip, right? He drew well and seems to have a ton of talent, and while a win might be out of reach, he could pick up a minor award; capable of adding some spice to your exotics.

#3 Scatman: Just missed to fellow rival Secret Circle in the faster division of the Southwest after dueling on the lead from the inside and relenting only very late. That was a huge run, all things considered, as it was his first two-turn start and first in a graded stakes too, so there’s a chance he could improve. The sticky part comes with the race flow, as once again ‘Secret figures to be lapped to his flank and never allow him a breather, all while having to negotiate another half-furlong (not to mention a longer stretch run with the finish line in its traditional location); respect his talent, but going to try and toss him completely today.

#4 Cyber Secret: Well-bred runner tried to make a middle move in Secret Circle’s Southwest before tiring badly in the lane, so right away you wonder if he’s classy enough. If you’re willing to be in the forgiving mood, then his local win two-back was monstrous and stamps him as a contender here, but you kind of get the feeling that was the exception rather than the rule; tough to tout today.

#5 Optimizer: Lukas runner hasn’t bridged the gap from 2 to 3, and it’s pretty clear after a pair of dismal dirt runs to start his year that he’s a synthetic/turf runner and the main track just isn’t for him. And while it’s never bad to have a Hall of Famer in your corner and the coach has pulled off about 73 bigger upsets than this, it’s tough to envision this colt adding to the legend; easy toss.

#6 Jake Mo: Finished a fine second in the slower division of the Southwest after rallying through the stretch, and you would figure the added ground and longer stretch will only help him today. He should also like the much faster pace he’ll get to rally into, as his SW division went painfully slow to the half-mile, which dulled his stretch run a bit. No doubt he’s a meaner and faster 3yo and Oaklawn certainly agrees with him, so going to give him a long look in all the slots; looms an exotics threat.

#7 Sabercat: Asmussen’s second runner makes his much anticipated 3yo debut after a juvenile season that ended with a trio of two-turn wins that climaxed with a romp in the GIII Delta Jackpot. He’s been a revelation of sorts since getting to two turns (all three wins have come at the trip), and his versatility is a big plus, as he’s won from the lead, from close range and from far back. The worry today is that he’s making his 3yo debut and has a ton of earnings in the bank, so there’s really no reason that the screws are going to be tightened when that kind of important race called the Kentucky Derby looms in about six weeks’ time; keying underneath, but not on top.

#8 Secret Circle: Baffert charge was visually impressive in his SW win as he was pulling away late after battling Scatman through some sharp splits. The song remains the same today as he figures to pull the same trip and hope to negotiate an extra half-furlong in the process. No doubt the waters get deeper, but he’s answered every question they’ve asked so far, is the best horse in the race, and will likely sit the best trip of anyone in here as well, so there’s really not much you can say except he’s clearly the one to beat; imposing.

#9 Atigun: McPeek runner was up late to win an optional claimer over the track and distance in January, and he returns off the respite today looking to make a dent in the local 3yo division. His running style should work well here, as there should be a solid pace, but up to this point he’s yet to run remotely fast enough to beat a group like this, let alone threaten them in the exotics; needs to show more to factor.

#10: Reckless Jerry: Ran a decent 3rd in the slower SW after sitting in midpack early and making a modest stretch run, so he’ll have to improve a bit to threaten this saltier group. His two local runs–he was also beaten a neck in the Smarty Jones–have been his best by far, so you know he likes it here and with a bit more pace to rally into, he could be that much tougher in the stretch, though at this point, others impress more; minor award may be his ceiling.

#1 Ring It Up: Finished 4th in the slower division of the SW after racing up close early and then tiring a bit late, so like ‘Jerry next door, he’s got some improving to do. Drew poorly again today (he was in post nine in the SW), so he runs the risk of being wide into the first turn, and as the most experienced member of the field with eight starts, you have to wonder if there’s any improving left in his body; siding against.

#1a Pee H Dee: Stepped way up and finished an encouraging fourth behind ‘Secret last time in what was a career-best run up to this point, so at least you know he’s heading in the right direction. Of course, he was beaten 8 lengths that day and has the top-3 of that race, not to mention some sharp new shooters, to deal with, so he better have another cracker in him if he wants to make his presence felt; just maybe for the bottom of the exotics.

#11 Najjaar: Intriguing runner is perfect in two OP starts (both at this distance too), and will bring a devastating stretch kick to the table in a race that we’ve already mentioned should have an honest pace. Peitz knows what to do with a good horse, and this son of Jazil seems to be coming to hand by the day; that last win, where he was 12 lengths behind early before rolling home late, was a real breakthrough. Steps way up today but the race flow should agree with him, and he has the look of the right, fresh, new face in a race that could very well fall apart in the lane; expecting him to be rolling late and get a big, big piece of this.

#12 Adirondack King: Stretched out and ran a fine third behind ‘Secret in the SW after finishing in the same spot in a Tampa sprint stakes to kick off his 3yo season. Son of Lawyer Ron ran by far his fastest race to date last time, so you have to wonder if he’ll bounce today, though it’s worth noting that the race flow should suit him again. Got no help from this draw but he figures to drop back, let them rattle early, and then try and make a late run. It’s not out of the question to think he can rally again for another piece; contention runs deep.

Selections:

#8 Secret Circle

#11 Najjaar

#7 Sabercat

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Speaking out on behalf of animals…some of them, anyway

The bad news is that I haven’t posted here in over a week. The good news is that that’s because I’ve been working on a number of stories for Thoroughbred Times, New York Breeder, and Forbes.com – recent articles are always posted at the top of the column to the right, so check them out if you have a chance. And as the good folks at Forbes.com like when their stories get comments, please do chime in if you agree, disagree, accept, question. Would love to hear from you there, too.

I most recently wrote there about the Jockey Club’s Equine Injury Database, a post I’d been planning for a couple of weeks but that gained greater urgency in light of the continued breakdowns at Aqueduct and the cancellation of Luck.

The accident that killed the third horse happens on racetracks and on farms, to work horses and race horses and show horses. It is unfortunate, but it was an accident that I’m not sure merits the level of outrage directed at Luck and at racing that it’s elicited. Or perhaps, I’m surprised that the outrage focuses on racing and not on other sports in which horses compete. Or maybe that’s happening, too, and I’m just not hearing it? Continue reading

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Brian’s Derby Preps: The Tampa Bay Derby

Tampa Bay Downs: The Grade II, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/16 miles

#1 Prospective: Runner-up in the track and distance GIII Sam Davis to fellow entrant Battle Hardened adds blinkers today to gain a little more speed early on, as he’s been dropping a bit too far out of it during the first half-mile. He’s run well in both starts this year, including a sprint win in the local Pasco to kick off his campaign, and with this ground-saving draw and a bit more speed early, there’s no reason to think he’s not a major player; clearly capable.

#2 Golden Ticket: Enters off an off-the-turf MSW at Gulfstream Park and will really need to step it up to factor in this deep and contentious GII. Son of BC Sprint winner Speightstown isn’t really bred for this trip and meets several battle tested stakes foes; longshot. Continue reading

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Brian’s Derby Preps: The San Felipe

Santa Anita: The Grade II, $300,000 San Felipe at 1 1/16 miles

#1 Blingo: Stretch runner closed from the clouds to finish a non-threatening sixth to fellow entrant Liaison in his last start, the GI CashCall at Hollywood Park, to end his 2yo campaign and now tries conventional dirt for the first time. With just two lifetime runs, he’s got a ton of upside and has been training up a storm in the AM, but he’s a son of BC Turf Mile winner Artie Schiller, and you have to wonder if dirt will be his calling; tabbing for later.

#2 Bodemeister: Baffert charge looked awesome when trying two turns for the first time in his second career start, a runaway 9 ¼-length win over MSW’s here last month, and now he gets thrown into the deep end to see where he fits with the West Coast’s leaders. Son of Empire Maker owns a ton of zip and should be the inside speed, though there are a few others who want to mix it up early, so a duel is quite possible. His talent is unquestioned but this is asking a lot, all while getting a potentially negative race flow; trying to beat on top at false odds. Continue reading

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New York Racing’s Fan Advisory Council

Last summer, the New York State Racing and Wagering Board announced the formation of a Fan Advisory Council to “provide input and advice to the Board on horse racing and wagering matters in New York state” (sic). According to its website, the Council will examine the “total racing experience” and report its findings to the board.

The Council currently comprises four members–chair Patrick Connors, Michael Amo, Allan Carter, and M. Kelly Young (bios here)—and held an open meeting on Saturday at Aqueduct. The two-hour agenda included a presentation by the New York Racing Association, an extended Q&A, and a tour of Aqueduct.

The Council’s mission, according to Connors, is to promote the sport of horse racing in the state and to improve the fan experience, the “big reason,” he said, for Saturday’s meeting.  “We want to hear from fans about what can be done to improve their experience at this track and others in the state, both Thoroughbred and harness,” he declared. Continue reading

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